d(S,t) = μS dt + σS dW Φ(d1)
MMXXVI · Est. Berlin

Eighty-two percent,
measured in sigma. One curve. Eleven trades. No opinions — only probability.

Equity Curve Long Entry Short Entry Closed
+80% +60% +40% +20%   0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun HD +12.0% DELL · PLTR +18.7% · +17.6% IBM +13.4% UKOIL ↓ +12.1% NVDA +9.4% CRWV +6.8% +82.0% NOW · YTD
Verified Signals
1,554
since inception, time-stamped
Hit Rate
82%
closed longs in profit, 2026 cohort
Avg. Return / Signal
+8.1%
median holding < 42 trading days
Asset Universe
204
equities · commodities · macro

“The market’s uncertainty is not the problem. The problem is failing to quantify it.

Lorenscheit · Operating Principle No. 01
I — Philosophy

Three pillars.
Zero gut feeling.

Every signal is the result of the same three filters. No exceptions, no discretion, no stories — only probabilities with verifiable origin.

I.

Black-Scholes Pricing

Options-derivative mathematics quantifies the fair risk price of every asset. When the market deviates significantly, a robust edge appears — not an opinion.

C = SΦ(d₁) − Ke⁻ʳᵗΦ(d₂)
II.

Monte-Carlo Projection

Tens of thousands of paths simulate possible price trajectories. What remains is a distribution — and within that distribution, the zone where entry and exit make statistical sense.

Sᵗ₊₁ = Sᵗ·e^(μ−½σ²)Δt + σε√Δt
III.

Sigma Zones

Multi-timeframe cycles condense the distribution into discrete action zones: Long, Short, Wait. Every zone is time-stamped, auditable, and binds action to a defined probability.

σᵗ ∈ {−1, 0, +1}
II — Evidence

Track Record.
Public, time-stamped, uncurated.

Excerpt of the BUY cohort, February–April 2026. Figures are referenced live from Yahoo Finance; signals were published before the move.

SymbolCompanyBuySellP/LTrajectory
DELLDell TechnologiesFeb 18+18.7%
PLTRPalantirFeb 18+17.6%
UKOILBrent CrudeMar 05Apr 07+12.1%
IBMIBMFeb 12+13.4%
CRMSalesforceFeb 15+11.6%
HDHome DepotJan 09+12.0%
NVDANVIDIAFeb 21+9.4%
CRWVCoreWeaveApr 02+6.8%
TSLATeslaFeb 05−1.8%
BABAAlibabaFeb 24+7.1%
BNTXBioNTechMar 01+4.3%
III — Method

From chaos to compass.

Every signal runs through the same path — automated, documented, repeatable. Your job is discipline. Ours is mathematics.

  1. Data ingest

    Tick, options-chain, and macro feeds across 204 assets. Nothing is manually filtered — raw data or nothing.

  2. Pricing & path simulation

    Black-Scholes delivers the theoretical price, Monte Carlo the possible trajectories. Discrepancies become the basis of a potential edge.

  3. Sigma evaluation

    Multi-timeframe cycles (1D / 4H / 1H) converge to a single decision: Long, Short, Wait — each with its associated probability.

  4. Publication

    The signal is published with a time-stamp, ahead of any move. The exit zone is already defined before you enter.

IV — Invitation

Private access.
Not for everyone.

Lorenscheit Intelligence is restricted to a small circle of investors who value data over narrative.

  • Daily signal delivery · 204 assets
  • Sigma zones in real time, time-stamped
  • Entry / exit based on probability
  • Monthly market-regime briefing
  • Direct line to the quant desk
  • Cancel any time · no lock-in
Monthly Retainer
500.
per month · net
Request Access